RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Implementation and calibration of a new irregular cellular automata-based model for local urban growth simulation: The MUGICA model
A1 Barreira González, Pablo
A1 Aguilera Benavente, Francisco Israel
A1 Gómez Delgado, Montserrat
K1 Irregular
K1 Cellular automata
K1 Model calibration
K1 Urban simulation
K1 Urban growth
K1 Geografía
K1 Geography
AB Cellular automata (CA) based models have traditionally employed regular grids to represent the geographical environment when simulating urban growth or land use change. Over the last two decades, the scientific community has introduced the use of other spatialstructures in an attempt to represent the processes simulated by these models morerealistically. Cadastre parcels are a good choice when simulating urban growth at localscales, where pixels or regular cells do not represent the geographic space properly.Furthermore, the implementation and calibration of key factors such as accessibility andsuitability has not been sufficiently explored in models employing irregular structures.This paper presents a fully calibrated model to simulate urban growth: MUGICA (Modelfor Urban Growth simulation using Irregular Cellular Automata). The model uses theirregular structure of the cadastre and its smallest unit: the cadastral parcel. The factorsincluded are based on the traditional NASZ (Neighbourhood, Accessibility, Suitability andZoning Status) modelling schema, frequently employed in other models. Each factor wasimplemented and calibrated for the irregular structure employed by the model, and a newapproach was explored to introduce a random component that would reproduce illegalgrowth. Several versions of MUGICA were produced to calibrate the model within theperiod 2000-2010. The results obtained from the simulations were compared againstobserved growth for 2010, adapting the traditional confusion matrix to irregular space. Anew metric is proposed, called growth simulation accuracy (GSA), which measures howwell the model locates urban growth.
SN 2399-8083
YR 2019
FD 2019-02-01
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10017/36866
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10017/36866
LA eng
NO Proyecto «Instrumentos de Geosimulación y planificación ambiental en la ordenación territorial de ámbitos metropolitanos. Aplicación a escalas intermedias (Ref. CSO2012-38158-C02-01), financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
DS MINDS@UW
RD 26-abr-2024