RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Twenty-two years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the Bulletin of EU and US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis
A1 Espasa Terrades, Antoni
A1 Senra Díaz, Eva
K1 Disaggregation
K1 Indirect forecast
K1 Outliers
K1 C13
K1 Economía
K1 Economics
AB The Bulletin of EU and US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis (BIAM) is a monthly publication that has been reporting real time analysis and forecasts for inflation and other macroeconomic aggregates for the Euro Area, the US and Spain since 1994. The BIAM inflation forecasting methodology stands on working with useful disaggregation schemes, using leading indicators when possible and applying outlier correction. The paper relates this methodology to corresponding topics in the literature and discusses the design of disaggregation schemes. It concludes that those schemes would be useful if they were formulated according to economic, institutional and statistical criteria aiming to end up with a set of components with very different statistical properties for which valid single-equation models could be built. The BIAM assessment, which derives from a new observation, is based on (a) an evaluation of the forecasting errors (innovations) at the components' level. It provides information on which sectors they come from and allows, when required, for the appropriate correction in the specific models. (b) In updating the path forecast with its corresponding fan chart. Finally, we show that BIAM real time Euro Area inflation forecasts compare successfully with the consensus from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, one and two years ahead
SN 2225-1146
YR 2017
FD 2017-10-06
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10017/31124
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10017/31124
LA eng
NO Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
DS MINDS@UW
RD 28-nov-2023