RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area
A1 Senra Díaz, Eva
A1 Poncela Blanco, Pilar
K1 Survey of professional forecasters
K1 Combination of forecasts
K1 Uncertainty
K1 Surprises
K1 Principal components
K1 Economía
K1 Economics
AB Expectations and uncertainty play a key role in economic behavior. This paper deals with both, expectations and uncertainty derived from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. Given the strong turbulences that the euro area macroeconomic indicators observe since 2007, the aim of the paper is to check whether there is any room for improvement of the consensus forecast accuracy for GDP growth and inflation when accounting for uncertainty. We propose a new measure of uncertainty, alternative to the ad hoc equal weights commonly used, based on principal components. We test the role of uncertainty in forecasting macroeconomic performance in the euro area between 2005 and 2015. We also check the role of surprises in the considered forecasting sample
SN 0377-7332
YR 2016
FD 2016-09-28
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10017/27641
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10017/27641
LA eng
NO Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
DS MINDS@UW
RD 25-abr-2024