RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change
A1 Valladares Ros, Fernando
A1 Matesanz, S.
A1 Guilhaumon, F.
A1 Araújo, M.B.
A1 Balaguer Núñez, Luis
A1 Benito-Garzón, Marta
A1 Cornwell, W.
A1 Gianoli, E.
A1 Van Kleunen, M.
A1 Naya, D.E.
A1 Nicotra, A.B.
A1 Poorter, H.
A1 Zavala Gironés, Miguel Ángel de
K1 Climate change
K1 Variability hypothesis
K1 Ecological niche models
K1 Intraspecific variation
K1 Local adaptation
K1 Niche
K1 Phenotypic plasticity
K1 Population differentiation
K1 Ciencia
K1 Medio Ambiente
K1 Science
K1 Environmental science
AB Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populationsdiffering in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modelingexercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species rangeshifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species’ range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.
PB Ecology Letters
SN 1461-0248
YR 2014
FD 2014
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10017/20883
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10017/20883
LA eng
DS MINDS@UW
RD 30-nov-2023