The global ecological niche of lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) and predicted range shifts under climate change

Abstract

Lumpfish are a commercially significant marine fish that are harvested in roe fisheries and used as cleaner fish in salmon farming, however, little is known of the environmental factors shaping the ecological niche of the species at global scale. As captive reared lumpfish are sensitive to warm water, the geographic distribution of wild populations may change as sea temperatures rise under expected climate change. After investigating the ecological niche of the lumpfish using Species Distribution Models, we found that nitrate concentration, ice cover, diffuse attenuation, and temperature predicted the probability of lumpfish occurrence. Through modelling distribution under expected climate change forecasts within a realistic scenario, we found reduced probability of lumpfish occurrence in areas which currently support roe harvest and cleaner fish industry. Future conservation of the species and fisheries management should account for changes in lumpfish distribution as the range shifts northward.