The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change
Authors
Valladares Ros, Fernando; Matesanz, S.; Guilhaumon, F.; Araújo, M.B.; Balaguer Núñez, Luis; [et al.]Identifiers
Permanent link (URI): http://hdl.handle.net/10017/20883DOI: 10.1111/ele.12348
ISSN: 1461-0248
Publisher
Ecology Letters
Date
2014Bibliographic citation
Ecology Letters, 2014, v. 17, n. 11, p. 1351-1364
Keywords
Climate change
Variability hypothesis
Ecological niche models
Intraspecific variation
Local adaptation
Niche
Phenotypic plasticity
Population differentiation
Project
CSD2008/00040 (Ministerio de Innovación y Ciencia)
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/CAM//S2009%2FAMB-1783/ES/Restauración y conservación de los ecosistemas madrileños: respuesta frente al cambio global/
410RT0406/ECONS (Red Iberoamericana de Ecología de la Conservación)
CGL2011-26852 (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad)
Document type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Publisher's version
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12348Rights
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
© The Authors, 2014
Access rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Abstract
Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations
differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling
exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range
shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species’ range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.
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